Wednesday, October 30, 2013

**Severe Weather HALLOWEEN EVENING**

Good afternoon,
It has come into my attention that the Storm Prediction Center has portions of Georgia in a severe weather risk are for both Day 2 (Halloween) and Day 3 (Friday). A strong cold front will be moving in with high wind shear, modest instability, and seasonal moisture. The dynamics are pretty good, so Georgia will see at least some severe weather with this system, consisting of at least isolated damaging winds. Although there is a tornado chance, it seems to be low currently. Below is the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for Halloween.


As you can see, most of the action will be to our west during the day. Places like Memphis, Tennessee, Paducah, Kentucky, and Cincinnati, Ohio, will see damaging winds and isolated tornadoes somewhere in the area. However, by evening, around 8-9 PM, the pre-frontal zone of activity will begin approaching Georgia, and after 9 or 10 PM, there could be a threat for some damaging wind gusts in northern and western Georgia. Also, if there will be any tornadoes with this front, tomorrow evening in North Georgia might be the only time when they might happen. Nevertheless, I doubt that there will be enough rotating storms or rotation within them to produce anything more than just damaging winds. Still, if you live in areas to the north of I-20 and to the west of I-85, you might want to change your outdoor Halloween plans to indoors. And if your kid does decide to go trick-or-treating, they must definitely go inside if they hear thunder. Below is the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for Friday. 


Again, a lot of the state of Georgia will be in a risk area for severe storms. A lot of this might be late during the night, between 2 and 6 AM, but during daytime, additional storms will fire up in central and southern Georgia. Although the line will be a lot weaker, the marginal threat for damaging winds will still exist, although the tornado threat will be near zero. Below is my preliminary timeline for the severe storms tomorrow night into Friday. 


Thank you for tuning in. An update will be posted tomorrow afternoon. 
Mark


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